Internet Predictions for 2014

by Carl Weiss

If you think the Internet in 2013 was a roller coaster ride, wait until you see what shapes up in 2014. While Google will still dominate search, that doesn't mean that the also-rans aren't going to try to chip away at their market share.  One of the biggest upheavals in 2013 by Google was the unveiling of Hummingbird, the single biggest algorithm change since it's inception.  Many website owners who found their Google ranking either reduced or lost in Cyberspace after the introduction of Hummingbird may switch allegiances to Yahoo and/or Bing if they feel they are being treated better by the competition.  Several other moves by Google have also rankled many, such as their decision to bundle Local into Google+.  This not only forces anyone who wants to use Google Local or Google Maps for marketing purposes to log into G+ every time they want to access either, but it forces their customers to log in as well if they want to post a review.  Add to that the fact that has Google not only poisoned the organic ranking well, they also spiked pay-per-click by making it mandatory for new Adwords clients to keep their account on auto-pay.  This means that once your ppc funds run out, Google will hit your credit card whether you like it or not.  Not nice Google!

When it comes to the big boys playing rough, Google isn't alone.  Other online behemoths such as Facebook have also shown a propensity to do whatever they can to get their hands on your wallet.  As a number of Facebook users have discovered when they access their news feed, video ads start playing automatically when they scroll.

A recent blog on wired.com states that, "In its news release, Facebook frames the video ads as a way to help “brands tell stories on Facebook to ensure the best experience for people. In prior earnings calls with Wall Street analysts, Facebook was more forthcoming about the profit potential behind these videos.  Facebook shareholders, including staffers and executives with stock options, have their own reasons to like this product. Advertisers are expected to pay a significant premium for video ads, lifting Facebook’s financial performance and buoying its stock, which was trading below its initial offering price until this past fall. Today, the stock is trading up roughly 90 cents to around $54.70, a 44 percent premium over the initial offering price."

Not nice Facebook! 

Do Nice Guys Always Finish Last

A number of  other big players stumbled in 2013, such as Microsoft with Windows 8.  Many users of their 8.1 operating system have reported problems accessing SkyDrive cloud storage.  Says PC World, The problems for the affected users began after installing Windows 8.1, the update to Windows 8 that started shipping in mid-October. The complaints include nagging and persistent error messages, slow performance, difficulty uploading files, lost and corruptedfolders and documents, and sync troubles, including duplicate files and processes caught in a loop. 

While Microsoft said that "The company is aware of a small number of people discussing these issues on forums," this is hardly a way to bolster the acceptance of Windows 8, which has not been well loved by the masses.  Could this open the door to a competing PC operating system?  Stay tuned.

One of the biggest complaints that consumers in the US have deals with the high cost of cable TV.  Many households pay $150 or more per month to watch the Boob Tube.  With a limited number of choices for cable and satellite TV, the operators of these services have felt that they could charge whatever the market would bear.  I hate to be a bearer of bad news to the cable moguls, but their hegemony could soon be a thing of the past.  Already, several online providers of on-demand movies and TV series are alive and kicking, including Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime, just to name a few.  With fees as low as $8 per month, many consumers have already cut the cable and gone online.  In 2013 alone, the number of cable subscribers in the US fell by nearly 1 million.  Over the same period Netflix saw the number of subscribers jump by nearly 4 million.  As other entrepreneurs ink deals with movie and TV production companies, how long will it be before the cable and satellite TV moguls are forced to either compete or perish?  I predict that 2014 will see a significant shift in viewer loyalty as more online options become available to the masses.  How serious is the threat?  Serious enough for Time Warner Chairman Jeff Bewkes to admit in a Forbes interview that his industry needs to, "Offer online video now or someone else will!"

We're Not in Kansas Any More, Toto!

When it comes to the King Kong of online complaints, the blue ribbon would have to go to the government's healthcare.gov website.  If it wasn't enough that the $650 million website keeps crashing the security of the site is also suspect.  I think the blog by a reporter with fiscaltimes.com sums it up best:

Although I spent several hours "talking" my application to a HealthCare.gov representative on a toll-free hotline – divulging my entire family's Social Security numbers and dates of birth – when I called three weeks ago, they said they had no record of my application and asked me to send a photocopy of my driver's license to a government processing center in London, Kentucky.

When I called back last week, I spent another half hour on the phone with HealthCare.gov. After the first representative placed me on hold and eventually hung up, I called back and asked for the supervisor.

"Is my application file in your system?" I asked.

"We don't have any answers," the supervisor replied. "It takes two weeks to do identity proofing. You'll get a reply by mail or a pre-recorded phone message."

When you realize that the federal government has stated that unless at least 7 million consumers sign up for the service that it will not be viable and that signing up for the program is been all but impossible, I predict that in 2014 the feds will be forced to either go back to the drawing board or drop the program in its entirety.

Why Gamble with Your Financial Freedom?

The feds weren't the only government entity to experience technical difficulties in launching a new online service.  The State of New Jersey has also been having problems getting its recently legalized online casino gambling service up and running.  After launching the new service, with the proviso that only New Jersey residents be allowed to play online for cash, the system immediately experienced a number of glitches that resulted in about 75 percent of people who tried to play online being rejected.

Steve Callender, the general manager at the Tropicana Atlantic City, commented, “I would say a quarter are getting on.  We don’t have a situation where people who are outside the state are getting on.”  http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/online_gambling_new_jersey_technical_issue_geolocation.html

At least part of the problem revolves around the fact that a number of major banks, including AMEX and PayPal have refused to fund gaming transactions.  While the 6 casinos that have been authorized to offer online wagering say that are trying to fix these problems, they all admitted that the fix will take months to resolve.  Personally I think this once more provides proof positive that business and bureaucracy do not mix.

Other issues to keep a weather eye on in the coming year includes the prevalence and severity of cyber attacks taking place on individuals, corporations and governments.  2013 saw a number of landmark cases by the FBI, including the shutting down of the drug superstore Silk Road, whose 29 year old webmaster was busted in Seattle after making millions online.  The bad news is that no sooner had this site gone dark when several other web entrepreneurs stepped in to fill the void.  (For more on this story, see my blog Iron Fist in a Silk Glove.)  

Last year saw the Chinese military hacking into all kinds of government and corporate entities.  At one point the hacking became prevalent that if you were a government agency that wasn't being attacked then the rumor was that "You weren't important enough."  While government cyberspying is anything but new, it was the land office scale of the Chinese hacking that rankled many in Washington.  So blatant was the attack that it wasn't long before the physical location of the attackers was learned.

In a quote from the LA Times, “Mandiant Corp., a U.S. computer security firm based in Alexandria, Va., said in a report last month that it had traced an epidemic of attacks on dozens of U.S. and Canadian companies to an office building in Shanghai occupied by an espionage unit of the People's Liberation Army.”

Before the year was out, another international player in the government hackathon emerged: Iran.  That's right, the same government that we negotiated a nuclear non-proliferation treaty with has been caught with their hand in the cookie jar.  In a quote from freebeacon.com

"An Arab hacking group with ties to the Iranian government claims to have seized classified information from servers belonging to the Israeli and Saudi governments, as well as the Saudi Bin Laden Group, a construction conglomerate run by the family of terror mastermind Osama bin Laden. The hackers released a statement in Arabic that took aim at both the Israelis and Saudis, two nations that have grown closer in recent weeks over their opposition to the West’s recently signed nuclear accord with Tehran."

While many Americans first reaction might be one of, "How does this tit-for-tat cyber attack by Iran on Israel affect US national security?"  You have to be aware that these same hackers may also have been actively caught trying to compromise the security of some of this country's biggest financial institutions.

In a quote from a blog on haaretz.comhttp://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.564492 - "Over the last year, the U.S. has accused Iran of cyber attacks against its banks, while Saudi Arabia has placed the blame on Iranian hackers for a serious cyber assault on computers of its national oil company, Aramco."  

So the issue is hardly put paid and I predict that international hacking in 2014 could bring this country to the brink of war should any key link in the national infrastructure become breached.    Far from discouraging other countries from committing acts of cyberwarfare, the US government's lackadaisical attitude toward cybercrime and cyberattacks in general encourages hostile and even friendly governments into jumping on the hacking bandwagon.  Sooner or later, this policy will create a crisis where either the financial institutions, power infrastructure or communications backbone of this country  will become critically compromised, resulting in the kind of public outrage that hasn't been felt since Pearl Harbor.  

Carl Weiss is president of W Squared Media Group a digital marketing agency in Jacksonville, Florida.  He is also co-host of Working the Web to Win on BlogTalkRadio.com and owner of Jacksonville Video Production.