By Carl Weiss
We’ve all heard the doom and
gloom predictions that never came true.
Remember Y2K or the solar flares that were predicted to bring our
technology based society to a standstill during the 2013 solar maximum cycle,
neither of which ever came to pass? Sure
you do. While most prognostications have
a tendency to generate anxiety based upon how often they are touted by the
media, with few exceptions these predictions are much ado about nothing. And even if they were to come to pass, like
the dinosaurs 65 million years ago that wondered what that bright streak across
the sky was all about, there isn’t a heck of a lot you can do about impending
global catastrophes.
That’s not to say that
localized tech extinction events do not occur.
As fate would have it they are the rule rather than the exception. Remember quadrophonic sound, the Lisa computer,
Betamax videotapes or the LaserDisc?
These were all clear cut examples of next generation technology that
never caught on and ultimately disappeared from the face of the Earth. All of the above mentioned technologies were
clearly a cut above the competition. All
of them fell flat on their faces even though they were touted by some of the
most successful companies in the world.
Worse still was the fact that there were many people who purchased these
products and wholeheartedly believed that they were part of the technological
elite.
Betamax (also
called Beta,
and referred to as such in the logo) is a consumer-level analog videocassette magnetic tape recording format developed
by Sony, released in Japan on May
10, 1975.[1] The cassettes contain
.50 in (12.7 mm)-wide videotape in a design similar to the
earlier, professional .75 in (19 mm) wide, U-matic format. The format is
virtually obsolete, though an updated variant of the format, Betacam, is
still used by the television industry
While many of these products became
the progenitors to vastly more successful technologies, such as the DVD and the
Macintosh Computer, that was small consolation to those people who ponied up
thousands of dollars to buy into the now defunct model. Of course this is the price that early
adopters pay to be the kids on the block with the newest toys . This trend, like evolution, is not going to
stop any time soon. If anything with the
uptick in the sheer volume of devices, apps and software that is created
nowadays, if anything the rush toward technological extinction is quicker
than ever.
Is the Nook a
Dead Duck?
Back in 2009 Barnes and Noble
introduced the Nook, which was touted a couple of years later as the “Best
e-reader around” by Consumer reports. Yet
despite this high praise, the Nook has not managed to find wide enough
acceptance to best the competition. Like
the Beta vs. VHS competition of the 1980’s, the Nook vs. Kindle market is going
to the competition, if the news from TechVoid is any indication.
“Barnes & Noble
recently laid off several of its Nook staff recently, furthering doubts about
the company’s long term sustainability in the ebook space. While a company
spokesperson remained optimistic and made it clear that they would not be
exiting the device business, it is uncertain how much longer they can compete
successfully with Amazon.com in this area.” http://techvoid.com/2014/02/21/demise-barnes-noble-nook/
Many pundits reply that by
aligning yourself with the right camp you can more or less prevent
technological extinction from taking place.
They surmise that the popularity of leading brands makes purchasing next
gen gear more or less bulletproof. To
that I point out the fact that the Lisa was a next gen computer that was not only years ahead of
the competition, but it was designed and built by none other than Steve Jobs at
Apple Computer. Designed during the
early 80’s as the logical evolution of the Apple II, the Lisa had a long list
of features that were unheard of back in the early 80’s, including a
sophisticated hard-disk based operating system, support for up to 2 MB of RAM,
a graphical user interface (GUI), a numeric keypad, a screensaver and the first
computer mouse. Despite spending
millions of dollars on TV ads featuring none other than Kevin Costner, Jobs
threw in the towel after failing to sell more than 50,000 units.
In fact it was due to the
failure of Lisa that Steve Jobs briefly found himself without a job when he was pushed
out of Apple for a time. Of course as
time would tell, not only did Steve Jobs return to head Apple, but during his
hiatus he helped turn another technological stepchild named Pixar (a company that not even
George Lucas could afford to keep running) into one of the most prolific and
profitable animation companies on the planet.
But that was then and this is
now. So while companies like Google may
be the big kid on the block when it comes to search engine prowess, that
doesn’t mean that everything they devise is necessarily gold plated. Take Google Glass, a techno trial balloon
launched in limited quantities a little more than a year ago. When it comes to wearable technology, it
doesn’t get any more “in your face” than Glass.
(Or should I say on your face?)
While tens of thousands applied for the privilege of paying $1,500
apiece to don this wearable computer, the jury is still out on whether this
device will become the next iPhone. What
is a certainty is that it has garnered a lot of media attention and not all of
it good.
With such monikers as Glass
Hole being used to denigrate Glass wearers and several lawsuits spawned by
people wearing them who were ejected from a number of eateries and movie
theaters, it’s anybody’s guess if this latest hi-tech offering will make the
grade. Like Lisa, Glass is quite a bit
pricier than any comparable computer device.
While you can purchase a laptop or tablet computer that performs many of
the same tasks as Glass for under $500, in a recent survey of eBay, prices for
Glass were in the $1,700 range. And it
doesn’t help that any number of high profile comedians has made Glass wearers a
staple of the stand-up circuit.
What Time Is It?
But at least you can now buy
and sell Glass online, which is more than I can say for the vaunted
iWatch. After spawning the computer
wristwatch craze about a year back, Apple Computer has still to launch its own
version of this wearable technology. It was
the rumor of an Apple smart watch that led electronics giant Samsung and
entrepreneurial start up Pebble to beat Apple to market with a concept
they first coined. Now after more than a
year, not only has the iWatch failed to make it to store shelves, but some
industry authorities such as techradar.com are starting to wonder if it ever
will.
“Rumors of an Apple smart
watch have abounded since Pebble first hit the big time. The so-called iWatch
has so far failed to materialize in 2013 but will we see Apple get in on the
wrist-worn game in 2014? We've rounded up all the rumors and speculation to
keep things ticking (get it!). Which watch really seem likely and which ideas are
complete Apple poppycock? Only time will tell.”
As other next wave
technologies such as 3D printers, a plethora of wearables and the" Internet of Things"
rear their techno heads, what you need to ask yourself is whether you are
willing to plunk down a chunk of cash to be an early adopter, or whether you
can afford to wait until the smoke has cleared and a winner has been declared
by the public. Either way, it beats being as dead as a dinosaur by a long shot.
Carl Weiss is president of Working the Web to Win, a digital marketing agency in Jacksonville, Florida. He is also co-host of the weekly web radio show of the same name as well as the YouTube series.
Early adopters pave the way for the rest of us. We need more of them!
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